The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe

The Earth: Plasma Sources, Losses, and Transport Processes

This paper reviews the state of knowledge concerning the source of magnetospheric plasma at Earth. Source of plasma, its acceleration and transport throughout the system, its consequences on system dynamics, and its loss are all discussed. Both observational and modeling advances since the last time this subject was covered in detail (Hultqvist et al., Magnetospheric Plasma Sources and Losses, 1999) are addressed

Poleward leaping auroras, the substorm expansive and recovery phases and the recovery of the plasma sheet

The auroral motions and geomagnetic changes the characterize the substorm's expansive phase, maximum epoch, and recovery phase are discussed in the context of their possible associations with the dropout and, especially, the recovery of the magnetotail plasma sheet. The evidence that there may be an inordinately sudden large poleward excursion or displacement (a poleward leap) of the electrojet and the auroras at the expansive phase-recovery phase transition is described. The close temporal association of these signatures with the recovery of the plasma sheet, observed on many occasions, suggests a causal relationship between substorm maximum epoch and recovery phase on the one hand and plasma sheet recovery on the other

Plasma sheet behavior during substorms

Auroral or magnetic substorms are periods of enhanced auroral and geomagnetic activity lasting one to a few hours that signify increased dissipation of energy from the magnetosphere to the earth. Data acquired during the past decade from satellites in the near-earth sector of the magnetotail have suggested that during a substorm part of the plasma sheet is severed from earth by magnetic reconnection, forming a plasmoid, i.e., a body of plasma and closed magnetic loops, that flows out of the tail into the solar wind, thus returning plasma and energy that have earlier been accumulated from the solar wind. Very recently this picture has been dramatically confirmed by observations, with the ISEE 3 spacecraft in the magnetotail 220 R/sub E/ from earth, of plasmoids passing that location in clear delayed response to substorms. It now appears that plasmoid release is a fundamental process whereby the magnetosphere gives up excess stored energy and plasma, much like comets are seen to do, and that the phenomena of the substorm seen at earth are a by-product of that fundamental process